Friday, August 14, 2009

Making money online, Confirmation Bias and Lifestyle inflation @ Saturday Round Up

2 year recap and interesting reading from fellow bloggers


It has been a hectic year. My job takes up the best part of my life and between it and my 4 month old boy I have had little time to maintain The Personal Financier as I’d like.

I have been writing, here at The Personal Financier, for almost 2 years now and would like to think I’ve gathered a small crowd that enjoys my posts. I try to be innovative in my posting and avoid the shallowness which sometimes characterizes personal finance blogging.

I would like to believe my posts are useful and hold added value. I strive to walk off the beaten path as far as personal finance blogs are concerned. I would appreciate your comments and thoughts on the matter.

Interesting reading at fellow personal finance blogs:

Recent personal finance carnivals of interest:

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Buy on the Rumor – Sell on the News: Our Psychology at Work

A counter intuitive rule of thumb explained




Rumors of new products, earnings, takeovers and mergers immediately raise share prices. This is understandable as the value of the company is expected to rise as a result and so investors who believe the rumor to be true (or true enough) can buy on the rumor with the hope of generate significant returns in a short time.

Sell on the news is more intriguing. Usually this tested rule of thumb works. Many times after the news the share’s price shows signs of uncertainty and fear of the recent height it had attained. The reasons why can shed some light on how our psychologies play yet another trick on us.

Shouldn’t buying on the news be more appealing?

Solid investors should not buy on the rumor. Rumors have a tendency to turn out to be false and the share’s price soon follows to previous or lower levels. Still, buying on the news is more often than not too late for any short-term profit. Shouldn’t buying on the news be more appealing?

It seems rumors excite the imagination of investors so that by the time the news gets out it’s often disappointing by the mere fact it is grounded to a certain reality. I think something deeper, rooted in our psychology is at work, and I will expand on it shortly.

For the value investor buying on the news is the sound path for the long term. It is understandable how buying on the rumor may generate higher short-term returns as the associated risk is much higher since rumors may turn out to be false. Still, if you are not a speculator look for the hidden value in the news.

It is important to remember that many times the thought or idea of a certain takeover or merger is more exciting than the actual results. As we know everything is personal and merging two companies, two boards and two managements is hardly an easy task. An idea of a merger may be brilliant at first but if the operational and practical side is weak the merger is doomed.

Buy on the rumor sell on the news – the psychology at work

The more interesting aspect of buy on the rumor – sell on the news is the psychological aspect at play. This rule gives us another good example of how fragile our minds are and why the market is a place for the more rational.

Over and under corrections and the confidence bias – Think of the first think that comes to your mind when you hear a rumor regarding a company. We all believe the share prices will sky rocket and are sorry for missing the opportunity. A rumor of an opportunity has a very strong effect on us. Our psychology usually leads us to see the up side of such an event ignoring the limits and limitations that exist. Our optimistic view is quickly generated into a peak in the share’s price only to later face reality and correct the price back downwards to reflect reality and overshooting.

Expectations and reward pursuit – Strangely enough we seem to value some thing more when we wait for it to come true than we do when it finally does. This psychological bias has been demonstrated in research and is rather intuitive once you consider it.

When you plan a trip and consider all the wonderful activities you will enjoy your perceived utility is much higher than it actually is when participating in these activities. When expecting a raise, for example, its perceived value is higher than when you’ve already received it. The mechanism seems to be intuitive as well. Evolution has programmed us to constantly seek new rewards and never settle for what we already achieved.

Therefore, the perceived value of a certain rumor is more often higher than the actually value once it turns out to be true.

Psychology and investing go hand in hand. I find this connection fascinating and I’ve written quite a few posts about it exploring the different aspects and tricks our minds play on us. We can’t always control our psychologies but we can try to offset some of the bias and use it for our benefit.

Related posts:


Past week Round Up

The finance carnivals were, as usual, very productive. I'd like to note the following two:

Other great posts of the past week include the following:

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Diversification is Dead. Long live Diversification

Don’t give up on diversification through asset allocation just yet


A short introduction to asset allocation and diversification

Assets allocation is said to be the optimal investment method for household investors. As household investors we lack both the time and knowledge to handpick assets and build and maintain a long term investment portfolio on our own. Unless you have a significant enough portfolio brokers and financial consultants will also professionally manage your portfolio through one asset allocation or another.

Asset allocation relies on diversification and the benefits it presents. If finance diversification is aimed to lower the specific risks of an investment and capture only the market risk, which cannot be eliminated. Specific risks are the risks associated with a single investment and include the risk the company we invested in will lose a major client, for example, or lose their successful CEO.

Diversifying is aimed to maximize the return with a given level of risk. The math behind this model is based on the correlation between the assets we invest in and this is one of the ways portfolios are built.

The bad news

If you’ve managed such a diversified and allocated portfolio over the past couple of years you must have noticed diversification didn’t quite work, to say the least. Each and every portfolio crashed and burned, regardless of the asset allocation (unless you went short on the market).

All major stock indices, commodities, oil and almost every asset that comes to mind plummeted. Diversification over assets, geographies and currencies hasn’t saved our portfolios from significant losses.

Some hoped that the emerging markets will be strong enough and independent enough to balance out the devastating impact of the recent crisis. Another economic motor would have created two semi-correlated financial drivers which might have offset some of the damages. It appears that it is too early to nominate China (and the European Union) as the next economic powers that be.

The reasons may be abundant but it seems that with globalization came increased correlation between assets and swept our precious diversification away. What are we to do now? How can household investors invest in such a turbulent market atmosphere?

Well, aside from increasing the risk free asset portion of the portfolio (such as deposits and government bonds) I believe there are also good news to be had.

The good news

First and foremost what crashed and burned together would probably rise back together. As such, anything we’ll put our hands and money on will probably generate decent returns on the upcoming investment horizon.

Some of us remember the good times back at 2005-2007 where all the assets generated decent returns and stock picking was never as needless.

Moreover, on the geo-political side of things, the increased co-dependence between our countries’ economies will hopefully lead to increased cooperation and mutual consideration of our impacts on one another.

How should households invest?

I’ve tried answering this question in my previous posts. I’m still a big supporter of good asset allocation. As I’ve written before good asset allocation includes allocation of investments over time not just over assets. Time allocation or dollar cost averaging helps us smooth the behavior of our portfolio by constantly averaging the buying price of shares and bonds.

I believe that other markets will emerge as economic engines of growth and will hopefully serve the world economy alongside the USA.

Related Posts:

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Personal Finance Management: Budget vs. Net Worth

While it may be recommended to manage both a budget and net-worth sometimes focus leads to better results.


I've been keeping a detailed budget for over two years now. My budget served me mostly in tracking my family's expenditures and investments rather than in setting goals but I tried to "course correct" whenever I noticed exaggerated expenditures in any area.

Another aspect of my financial management is tracking my net worth. A budget can be considered more of a profit and loss statement while net worth could be considered the balance sheet of household finances.

Still, since I took my recent job, I had very little time to invest in my budgeting efforts (and writing, unfortunately) and I had to focus my efforts on what I considered most valuable in terms of personal finance management.

My main consideration where the nature of my financial goals, the time and effort required and the marginal contribution I believed these tools had for me. The following discussion presents, in a concise manner the key considerations in net worth management and budget management.


Net worth management or budget management?


As any complex questions the answer is: it depends.

Personal finance management should complement one's lifestyle and financial goals. Considering my own led me to the conclusion net worth management is more suitable than budgeting (Still, had I the time I'd do both). Here are my considerations:

Personal finance management through budgeting is more of a short-term management focusing on specific goals, such as meeting one's financial abilities, paying off a credit card or short-term loan, regaining financial balance and generally meeting timely financial goals such as saving $1,000 a month, for example.

The key considerations for budget management are:

  • Profit and loss management.

  • Useful for achieving short term goals.

  • Requires a significant time investment and management.

  • Should be performed on a monthly basis, at the most.

  • Budget management requires attentive analysis of the breakdown of expenses and creative thinking on how to lower them.

  • Budget management keeps you focused on the savings side, leading to penny pinching and frugality which are good tools for savings as they have a cumulative impact.

  • Budget management without goal setting is simply tracking expenses with no corrective action.

Personal finance management in terms of net worth is more long-term management focusing on major life goals such as retirement, children savings, portfolio management and others.

The key considerations for net worth management are:

  • Balance sheet management – Capital as a function of assets and liabilities.

  • Useful for achieving medium and long term goals.

  • Requires little maintenance but significant time in portfolio management.

  • Net worth requires tracking various balances of assets and liabilities on a timely basis - bank balance, deposits, investment portfolio, value of a house on one side and mortgage, loans and other liabilities on the other.

  • Net worth management is focused on the long term on or growth of capital through investments. Net worth management may ignore the short term and does not aid in managing a budget – Just the bottom line of money saved at each period.

  • As with budget, net worth management without goal setting is simply tracking various balances.

  • Net worth management can be performed on a quarterly basis. Shorter periods may lead to frustration as funds and investments take time to grow.


My conclusion


While many recommend financial management which looks at both the short term and long term I believe that one may distract you of the other. For me, time invested in budgeting meant less time to invest in portfolio management and analysis.

Managing net worth when trying to meet a budget and repay loans may very well end in frustration seeing net worth on the negative side of the balance sheet.

Related Posts:

Image by: OneBlackBird