Friday, November 20, 2009

From concerns over unprecedented levels of government debt to making money from your old books @ The RoundUp

As I've posted last week I've sold the vast majority of my 6 month dollar cost averaging portfolio. The economic environment is too shaky for my taste. I'm willing to risk losing potential return since the risk I consider is a quick drop back to March 2009 levels. Assuming jobs won't improve any time soon I find it hard to see how governments will sustain growth through government spending alone. With each passing day risk of stagflation grows higher. Macroeconomic indicators aren't really proving any strong indication of the future.

The Stock market seems pretty relaxed, though. VIX volatility is down and things are calm. This may be attributable to the 2009 year end.

I'm on the sidelines waiting for a good opportunity to jump back in, slowly (Starting dollar cost averaging on a monthly basis all over again).


Interesting articles from leading economic and business magazines:

Stemming the tide @ The Economist – Concerns about Unprecedented levels of government debt (similar to those I expressed a week ago).

Managing A Portfolio With Hedgeable.com @ NY Times – A valuable portfolio management tool reviewed by the NY Times.

Money Issues That Can Test Even a Rock-Solid Marriage @ NY Times


Great personal finance posts from the past week's carnivals:

The Carnival of Personal Finance was hosted by M is for Money. Here are my favorite posts:

The Carnival of Money Stories was hosted by Out of Debt Again. These posts caught my eye:


More from fellow personal finance bloggers:

Do Emerging Market Funds Belong In Your Portfolio? @ Amateur Asset Allocator – My answer would be – yes. How big an exposure would be the more difficult question. A good spotlight on the role of emerging market funds in your portfolio.

Sell Your Used Textbooks and Old Books Online @ Money Blue Book – Great guide on making some extra money on old textbooks and books.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

How I Bought My Son $150 Worth of Cardboard Boxes (Or Free Box With Each Toy!)

Admiring the ability to enjoy the simpler things in life


As a child one of favorite sights was that of the suitcase my uncle had brought back with him from his travels. We always knew that bloated suitcase represented many mysterious and exciting gifts (toys of course) that can only be found abroad.

We were always very polite and waited patiently for the suitcase opening ceremony during which each of us received a present, thoroughly packed in wrapping paper bearing funny looking writing and smells of faraway places.

During the past decade I've been fortunate enough to visit my share of the world. However, only recently, with the birth of my Son I've been able to replicate those exiting moments. My wife and I are the only excited ones right now (he's 6 months old) but that didn't stop me.
Suffice to say walking into Manhattan's Toys R Us and FAO Schwartz had me leaving with a brand new 29" Samsonite and several pounds overweight.

Coming home, chest swollen with a new Father's pride I couldn't wait to show my wife my recent acquisitions. I knew she'd be proud of my toy hunting abilities and the new arsenal at the disposal of my Son.

I never noticed but it seems Duplo and Playmobil have really fascinating boxes. Apparently the contents were not nearly as exciting as the box that kept him busy for hours. Each corner, string and picture provided hours of fun either through banging or staring.

The mobile phone I bought, with numbers, letters and music which are activated by many colorful buttons came in a real neat packaging. It even stood upright by itself! The phone was cast away in minutes in favor of colorful yellow cardboard.

Seriously, I'm thinking of starting up my own toy factory for toddlers. Dorian's boxes and packages - all shapes and sizes. Why spend a small fortune on useless toys just for the packaging when you can buy as many as you'd like for the price of a single toy?

I'm currently in the seed level looking for investors. Would you be interested?

I guess I should be content. This phase won't last very long before toys get much more expansive, very fast. In fact, I've been trying to convince my wife we need a Playstation 3 since our son was born. I'm still counting on him to convince her we need it.

There's something beautiful about the total lack of materiality in babies. They are truly able to appreciate the free things in life such as a hug, a package, a tree branch or anything else of this sort. For some reason we lose it along the way.

Related Posts:

6 Figures at 28, Leveraged portfolios & causation @ The RoundUp

The better posts from fellow bloggers this past week include:

The Financial Fallacy of Patterns, Causation & Correlation @ The Financial Philosopher
Great post. The problem with patterns runs even deeper. Even if a pattern has been spotted it says nothing as to the related causality. Correlation is the bane of many of the social sciences, including economics. I've written quite a bit about it. Hume's brilliant analysis of the problem of induction is perhaps one my most favorite philosophical text as it leaves you shaken by the sheer truth of the arbitrariness of empiricist life. A fascinating subject. My thoughts On Causality and Correlation in Economics can be found here.

Five things to do for the baby before returning to work @ The BagLady
This topic has grown very close to me these days. I'd add: Prepare Mommy for post maternal leave life – The level of how our priorities changed amazed me even though I had given this issue much though. Suddenly we're there for another. That is a significant change I've yet to fully comprehend (after 6 months).

Hitting 6 Figures Income at 28! @ The Financial Blogger
Congratulations on hitting your mark! I believe 6 figure income is a state of mind, so to speak. The post includes several tips on how to achieve such a goal. From my experience, everything amounts to commitment and understanding of the broader picture. Adopting a pragmatic point of view according to which you have to earn rather than hope to get recognized is crucial. Too many employees believe they are entitled to much more than they are getting. This is a self-destructive point of view. The pragmatic approach suggests doing your best in a given job or seeking out alternatives on your way forward. Career management is an active endeavor and one should not hope for things to improve but work to improve those.


Are you as leveraged as Goldman Sachs? @ Gather little by little – On the importance of understanding leverage and one's real portfolio.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Dow Hits 13 Month High on Decision to Keep Aid Flowing to the World Economy

My fundemental reasons for concern


As several of my last posts indicate I have whole heartedly adopted Dollar Cost Averaging as my investment strategy. The reasons have been discussed in length a few posts ago.

Today I thought about liquidating some of the investments I've made in the past 6 months due to the negative vibe in the market encouraged by leading economists and investment gurus such as Noriel Roubini, George Soros and Bill Gross who all attribute a certain bubbly taint in the markets.

Good thing I didn’t. I might, though, tomorrow.

The reason that kept me from selling today was my attempt at disciplined investing and self restraint. Still, my fear of a near drop in stock prices only grew today. The reasons for my fears are:

The low interest rate environment as a catalyst to bubbles – Low interest rate drives investors wild. Risk appetite is gradually growing seeking alternative means of generating returns slowly yet surely forgetting the risks involved. In a 0.25% interest rate environment an 8% return reflects a 7.75% (!) risk premium. We must not forget that.


Many stocks have regain past losses and some are close to 2007 levels than ever before – There is no sign the economic growth is stable enough for the long term to justify such a prices level.

The markets are running on the government expense fuel – Bank earnings and growth is generated mainly through increase government expense with no signs of private sector backing or growth. How long can governments keep this up?

Fear of stagflation is real – Stagflation, the situation in which both inflation and economic stagnation are present is more and more a reality with each passing day. Price levels are bound to rise eventually due the huge amount of money being dumped on the markets by the government. Eventually the weak dollar may get weaker while the economy hasn't regained in full (again, very dependent on government expense).

Technical analysis points to diminishing volume of trade in recent stock price increase – The trade volume does not support the trend. This is cause for concern from a technical analysis perspective. Just look at the trade volume today.

The markets rejoice as government aid continues. This is a risky game. Any market position, whether short or long is a risky wager. I'm seriously thinking of adapting my strategy for the short term. Tomorrow I plan on restarting my dollar cost averaging after realizing some of the gains I had made during the past 6 months.


Related Posts:

Saturday, November 7, 2009

A Temple Restaurant and a Clearing House for Tickets – Two Observations of New York City

Best City in the World


New York City is my favorite destination in the world. Any opportunity to visit again, whether on business or pleasure is a joy. With each visit a new light is shed on some other aspect of the city. I'd like to share two such spotlights with you.

In case you have been wondering The Personal Financier is very much alive. It may not seem so but I'm doing my best on getting back on track. It's amazing how life changes once you have a child.


Peter Luger – The Mystery of Building a Lasting Brand

Peter Luger offers the best steak I've had my entire life. That's a fact on my part. I may be biased but I don't believe the brand has enough influence on me to force such a belief. It is truly remarkable.

Still, that rarely justifies the lasting brand name Peter Luger has made for itself and has been successful at maintaining for the last century. We all had great meals at great restaurants, some more hidden than others. Still, such a strong, international brand name for a steakhouse is a remarkable phenomenon.

Location? What is so great about a 15 minute train ride from Manhattan down a grimy Brooklyn Staircase only to walk 5-10 more minutes in the rather unattractive surroundings of Brooklyn's Broadway Street?

The restaurant? I've seen much better looking classic restaurants preserving the glory of days past in wooden furnishings.

The service? It may be characterized as slightly snooty with a "thank us for considering you a potential diner" attitude at times.

The food? I've already mentioned the food but that is not enough. It is probably the best Steak I've ever eaten but I've eaten ones that got pretty close to it as well.

It seems the Peter Luger charm is a complex one. And as always, the answer with complex is everything. Everything from the location to the design and attitude constitute the brand which is Peter Luger and assure my returning on any chance I get.

The relatively remote location suggests a good thing deserves the effort. It gently insinuates that the steak is that good it does not need a prime location and subtly differentiates between the connoisseurs and the herd (You being the connoisseur if you've understood the trip to be worthwhile). It suggests the steakhouse is a temple for meat lovers who would gladly take the pilgrimage to pray at the altar of porterhouse.

The restaurant's classic design supports these gentle innuendoes with classic appearance and sacred design. The temple of meat will forever be as it is. A holy place, unchanged with time.

The service is suggestive, as if you acknowledge the sanctity of the place and its guardians and decided to entrust yourself with their capable hands. They simply know their steak is that good.


TKTS – Ingenious Broadway Clearing House

I believe the first thing a tourist planning a visit to Manhattan writes down is "Get Broadway show tickets at TKTS". To his or her content a blow has been struck against the Tyranny of Broadway theaters and their exorbitant pricing. Simply wait for the last minute and the giants of Broadway will fold offering 50% discounts to the witty traveler.

The lines at 47th Street and Broadway are always full of conscious, self-assured consumers who know how to enjoy a show at a reasonable price. I used to be one of those standing in line, content to have purchased discounted show tickets thinking I had outsmarted the world.

TKTS provides a good deal and an important service. The fact is, however, that much better deals are available with little or no line at all, and better yet, you can select the date on your own. These are ironically available at the theaters themselves. The same ones we thought we had outsmarted.

On my recent trip I learned visiting the different theaters is much more worthwhile than waiting the TKTS line. All theaters offer much cheaper Balcony prices for all available dates. Usually, for most shows, an upgrade to better seating is available once the show had started, curtsy of the usher. At TKTS you'll get good prices but on much more expensive tickets, usually ending up seating in the same location.

TKTS is ingenious. Broadway owes much to whoever came up with this successful clearing house for theater TKTS. In my opinion this is the main idea behind this initiative. Broadway tickets were standardized, seating availability made common and all that was left was centralizing the selling point in the prime location it is currently located in.

Curtsey of the Theater Development Fund Broadway theaters enjoy a great selling point, cleverly marketed and ideally located. The stress on theaters boxes is lessened and tickets are sold throughout the day assuring seating is maxed out for every show.

The selling technique also contributes to TKTS performance as the pressure on the client is significant as he or she is holding up the line. Prices are quoted rapidly for each show with little time to ask or wonder. Decisions are made and tickets are sold.