Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Saving Money and Time (while Reducing Pollution): Americans in Big Cities Discover Scooters

Scooters present a rare opportunity to save both money and time and also go green in the process


Apparently more and more Americans are switching to scooters and light motorcycles these days. In the bigger cities scooter riders can be easily spotted making their way through traffic both cheaper and faster.

I’ve been riding a scooter for half a year now and I must say I feel reborn. I can’t even fathom how I didn’t make the switch to one of these vehicles sooner. I’ve experienced something similar to a religious epiphany and I’m intent on promoting my recent new revelation to the masses.

No more traffic, no more wasted time and no more frustration from spending a couple of hours on a distance that should be covered in 20 minutes. If scooters and motorcycles didn’t have enough going for them already high gasoline prices definitely gave these vehicles another attractiveness boost which quickly translated to sales which hopefully results in more eye opening experiences happy new scooter riders.

According to Reuters, “Piaggio” scooter sales went up 105% in May and 147% in June. “Piago” executive points out American city dwellers are definitely embracing this clean, fuel and time efficient means of transportation. Reuters also reports total scooter sales are up by 65% for the first half of 2008.

The US has traditionally lagged behind Europe and certainly behind Asia when it comes to scooters. The enormous distances and motorcycling tradition in the USA have certainly played a key role in the relative weakness of the scooter market. However, it seems increasing gasoline prices have tipped the equation in favor of the urban scooter which has everything going for it.
Scooter prices are a laugh compared to the average car ranging from $1,800 to $7,000. The old traditional image of the scooter, a faltering and noisy little motorized bicycle couldn’t be further from the truth. Leading scooter manufacturers have created new super-scooters which at times easily overshadow motorcycles.












The distinct advantages of scooters

  • Cheap and reliable means of transportation that helps avoid yet another pricey car loan saving thousands of dollars easily.

  • Very efficient mpg ratio at 70-90 mpg quickly translates to $10 for a week of city riding saving hundreds of dollars a month.

  • Environmentally friendly due to very high fuel efficiency contributing some more to the global effort.

  • Parking is a breeze translating to hundreds of dollars saved on a yearly basis.
  • Traffic and gridlock are foreign to scooters easily cruising between jammed packed roads.

The distinct disadvantages of scooters

  • Usually limited to the urban environment easily solved by keeping one car for long distance travels only.

  • Far riskier than driving a car obviously and requires attention, skill and maturity.

  • Insurance premiums are accordingly high but are nowhere near your total saving potential.

From my short experience I believe replacing a car with a scooter results in saving literally thousands of dollars with a much higher potential depending on the car you drive and the mpg you get.

If you’re looking to make a serious change in both lifestyle and personal finance considering the switch to a scooter is one of the best opportunities you have available.

Images by: maisonbisson, Presspix Photography, WorldWideMotorcycles

Monday, July 28, 2008

Would You Be Willing To Pay 60% Tax For a Higher Level of Social Equality?

The Scandinavian countries are well known for their high living standards, equal opportunities and overall well being. It comes with a hefty personal financial price which I believe is well worth the investment.

The Naeroyfjord, Norway

The Scandinavian nations: Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland are well known for their citizens’ well being, overall quality of life and high living standards. These countries have been constantly rated at the top of various top ten lists such as best countries to live in, best education, most content nation and more. The UN has rationally rated Scandinavian counties as some of the “best place(s) to live in” next to Canada, the US and other European countries.

The secret of the Scandinavian model has long been sought after by various countries jealously eyeing the Nordic success stories. I believe the secret is pretty straight forward. The question is, are we willing to pay the “price” and adopt similar values as a society?


The Secret to the Scandinavian Success Story

The Nordic success story is, in my opinion, a combination of several key factors:

1. Correct priorities - A correct set of priorities set by the government which in turn is properly translated to budget allocation.

2. Convenient Geopolitics – The gods of geopolitics seem to favor the Scandinavian states offering them little in the way of geopolitical challenges. Since the Second World War I believe no major conflict has taken place on Scandinavian soil. I’ve heard of occasional arm wrestling with the Russians over North Pole territories but not much more. I believe these countries do face challenges in the future, mostly domestic due to increased immigration but still they have it easy (compared to the USA for example, really without going into politics).

3. A more social and less self centered state of mind – from the occasional online chat or acquaintance I’ve received this important impression. I truly believe Scandinavian citizens hold the sacred capitalistic values some of us may hold less dear. I believe they have adopted and are educated to a more thoughtful and social state of mind which creates a better understanding of living in and as a part of society.

The Importance of Social Equality

Each value system holds certain values very dear. More capitalistic countries stress entrepreneurship, ones right to ones properties, monetary success while more social societies stress equality, equal opportunities and a more solid welfare system.

As Aristotle wrote the golden path usually lies in the middle. The question is where does this middle lie?

The morality of both capitalism and socialism has been debated upon greatly. Each system has its philosophers justifying the principles and values at its core. My personal preference is that all my fellow citizens will be entitled to what have become the basic human rights in modern societies. Among these are healthcare, a home, food, education and most importantly equal opportunities.

Inequality is often measured by distribution of income as a proxy. The latter is measured using the Gini Coefficient which measures statistical dispersion of income in different percentiles of the population. The following is a map showing the value of the Gini coefficient for different countries. The lower the coefficient the better:

Source: Wikipedia


A lower Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution. I must add that having a low coefficient is obviously not enough as it might simply state most of a certain country’s citizens are poor (China, for example). The combination of a low coefficient and high GDP per capita is more prominent in Scandinavia and Europe.


The Scandinavian Welfare System

The Scandinavian welfare system would be constituted as a wonder in most modern countries. The welfare system is made to take care of the inhabitants of the country “from the cradle to the grave”. Such a strong welfare system guarantees higher social equality and more equal opportunities.


Key benefits the Scandinavian social security offers are:
  • Free and full healthcare, hospitalization and immunization as well as old age nursing.
    Free education and higher education.

  • Long maternity leaves (42 weeks in Norway) with a 100% wage paid for by social security. Additionally the other spouse is entitled to several weeks of leave as well.

  • Generous unemployment compensation and re-training programs.

  • A minimum pension at retirement.

  • Child allowance from the first child.

These social security benefits might invite parasitic individuals to live on the country’s expense. This is where active employment policies and education as well as good old shame come into play. If something is unacceptable in a society than certain individual will be outcast for their behavior.

Naturally such an extensive social security safety net required high government expenditure. Here are some figures, for example, courtesy of Wikipedia: Sweden and Denmark were in 2004 the countries of the European union where the expenses of the public administrations were the highest, with respectively 57.2% and 56.3%, Finland being a little on this side with 50.7%. The Nordic countries are quite near France (53.8%), a country with an extensive public sector, and very distant from the British model, where taxes and public expenditure in general are much lower, but where people are generally expected to manage more of their own affairs for themselves.


The Price: High Taxes


Naturally, these expenses must be funded somehow. Norway is relatively rich in oil but generally speaking Scandinavian countries rely on high tax rates for funding the aforementioned social security and public expenditure.

Individual tax rates can reach as high as 63% in Denmark, 60% in Sweden and 50% in Norway. VAT is also unusually high at 25% for the aforementioned countries. Ranking countries by tax revenues as a percent of the GDP gives even stronger findings: 5 of the first 7 countries are Scandinavian countries with Sweden in first place with 51.3% and Finland closing the list with 42.4%. The UK is in the 16th place with 37% and the US at the 36th place with 27.3%.

Not everyone is willing to make this apparent sacrifice for a higher level of social equality. I’d personally hate to live in a place where my neighbors have a hard time getting the medicine they need. I believe thinking a bit less about ourselves as individuals and investing more in our societies will do all of us a world of good.

The Scandinavian states have done so well because of the unique society they have managed to create where social equality is valued while not taken advantage of. This is a delicate balance hard to find and harder to maintain.

I'd love to hear your thoughts and comments on this post. I’ve felt especially envious while writing it.

Images by: today is a good day

Sunday, July 27, 2008

No Free Bubble, Value-Packed Cars, 25 Ways to Improve Your Finances & More @ The RoundUp

The customary weekly roundup

Newspapers and magazines hold a wealth of information. Each roundup I’ll do my best to present some of the more enlightening, educating and at times practical articles I’ve read during the past week. My picks for this week are:
  • No Free Bubble @ NY Times - Simple logic dictates the same people and corporations that reaped fantastic and legendary profits should also be held accountable for the current crisis? A wide and generous federal safety net says otherwise. The question of whether the government should bail out these individuals and corporations is a deep one in a capitalistic society which holds entrepreneurship so dear.

  • Unhappy America @ The Economist - With the statue of liberty contemplating as a front page cover The Economist calls for an American soul search and self examination. A very interesting read.

  • Ten Most Value-Packed Cars @ Forbes - Very practical and very current even with slightly declining oil prices (please don’t forget where we were two weeks ago).

On to carnivals:

The Festival of Frugality #135 - The Frugal All Over Edition was hosted by Antishay Ventenne. My favorite posts from this edition are:

The Money Hacks Carnival #21 was hosted by HelpMyCashGrow.Com. I recommend the following posts:

The 162nd Carnival of Personal Finance: Baseball edition was hosted by Taking Charge. I enjoyed the following posts:

  • Goals Are Great Motivators @ Free From Broke – A good reminder of the importance of goals.

  • Backlash @ Save and Conquer –Deals with the painful results of a weak regulatory environment.

If this wasn’t enough, here’s more from fellow personal finance bloggers:

Saturday, July 26, 2008

The Big Mac Index – Applying Simple Economic Common Sense

Simple ”quick and dirty” economic modeling can give powerful insight


The Economist’s Big Mac Index has traditionally been thought of as an interesting yet dubious proxy for currency valuations and purchasing power.

Mcdonald’s has a vast array of branches worldwide. Next to the Cola companies Mcdonald’s has, what might be, the most widely distributed common product worldwide: The Big Mac. The Economist thus ingeniously constructed the Big Mac Index which is a simplified model of purchasing power and currency value.

The most beautiful economic models are very simple yet generate very interesting insights. I believe the Big Mac Index is one of those. The Big Mac Index is often referred to in economic and business papers. Mostly with a light humor but always seeking buried truths.


The economic sense behind the Big Mac Index - Purchasing Power Parity

Purchasing power parity, also known as PPP is a broadly used economic concept. According to purchasing power parity currency rates, in the long run, will move towards en equilibrium in which the cost of goods and services will be equal in different countries (adjusting for shipping costs, taxes etc.).


The Big Mac is an ideal example for a sold good which should be priced the same in the many different countries it is sold in. In the long run currencies will fluctuate to create such equilibrium.

Purchasing power parity is most commonly used in comparing living standards in different countries. While salaries in New York may be higher so are prices of common goods such as homes. As such, in terms of purchasing power parity one does not necessarily have a higher living standard simply because one earns more.

The following map, by Wikipedia, illustrates the purchasing power parity of the gross domestic product for the countries of the world (2003). The US is the base country, so it is 100. The highest index value, for Bermuda, is 154, so the same goods are 54% more expensive in Bermuda than in the United States:


Source: Wikipedia


Which currencies are overvalued and which are undervalued according to the Big Mac Index?

According to The Economist more currencies seem “out of whack” this July compared to last year. The Big Mac Index shows only a handful of currencies are close to their Big Mac purchasing power parity. According to the Big Mac Index:

  • The Australian dollar is within 10% of its fair value

  • The Euro is overvalued by 50%
  • Other European currencies such as the British Pound, Swedish Krona, Swiess Franc and even the Canadian dollar are all overvalued compared to their Big Mac purchase power parity.

  • Only the Japanese Yen is undervalued by 27%.

For the complete data and worldwide prices of Big Macs and their implied Dollar value please visit The Economist.

These results are far from surprising. The US Dollar has weakened greatly these past couple of years and an overshooting downwards is very probable. The following graph shows the US Dollar vs. the Euro:


While almost any other major currency strengthened significantly vs. the US dollar low interest rates in Japan are giving the Yen a hard time.

I believe The Big Mac Index reflects the major macro trends in world currencies, even if a bit roughly. It is a lovely example of a very simple extrapolation with good economic common sense at its basis.

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Image by: bee-side(s)

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

On the Psychological Effects of Ownership and Overpricing

Sellers tend to overprice their assets to include the pain of having to let go


During the last couple of weeks I’ve been browsing around for an apartment for my parents. They’re thinking about moving closer to the city to spare the precious time lost in traffic. I’ve seen 7 apartments up until now and I was constantly surprised by the gap between the state of the apartment and the asking price. Homeowners were very consistent in overpricing their assets, almost in complete disregard to the apartment and the market’s condition.

This phenomenon was so consistent I began wondering whether my perspective was at its source. Maybe I was under pricing these apartments? I was pretty sure I was willing to pay an honest price so I sat at my computer and started researching why owners overprice their assets.
Soon enough I had more examples than I could handle. In investments one usually attributes higher values to stocks one owns while a potential buyer would often attribute a lesser value. Even common trinkets such as pens or cups were considered of higher value than others in research done with students.

Essentially, in every situation where a buyer and seller are involved a value gap will emerge stemming from a subjective attribution of value that depends on whether you’re buying or selling.

Research shows ownership has a strong psychological effect on us

In a relatively early research by Knetsch & Sinden (Knetsch & Sinden, 1984) participants were given either a raffle ticket worth two dollar or simply two dollars. Very few participants showed any willingness to trade and were very content with what they got.

In another research (Loewenstein & Kahneman, 1991) half the students of a certain class received pens while the other half received a token exchangeable for an unspecified gift. The students were then asked to rate 6 possible gifts for future experiments. In the end the students had two options: either a pen or two chocolate bars. 56% (!) of the students that originally received pens preferred to keep the pen while only 24% of the rest of the students chose the pen. Furthermore, while rating the 6 possible gifts pens didn’t register any significant preference. This led researches to believe the main effect of ownership is not in enhancing the value of a thing but rather in enhancing the pain of having to give it up.

Ownership clearly has a psychological effect on us resulting in the aforementioned symptom: Overpricing of assets we own. The pain involved in having to part with an object takes form in a higher pricing of it. Furthermore, people unaware of this phenomenon are surprised when they realize others don’t share their perspective. Further research done by noble winning Prof. Daniel Kahnman shows even veteran brokers have a hard time letting go of the ownership effect usually attributing it to a sort of margin for negotiations.

The problem with the ownership effect

Overpricing an asset isn’t a bad thing in itself. Many home owners tend to overprice, even knowingly, thinking the right person will arrive and be willing to pay the price they ask for. That’s an understandable approach but it should be done with extreme care.

While searching for an apartment I quickly learned to ignore these over pricings deeming them not serious enough. As a potential buyer one is always looking for a potential seller to close a deal with. I believe over pricing signals lack of seriousness and disrespect on the part of the seller.

With an abundance of information getting away with overpricing isn’t really possible. Market surveys are easier than ever, even in the traditionally less transparent markets like real estate. The internet has a wealth of knowledge and one only needs to search very roughly to get good information quickly.

How can we counteract the ownership effect?

The obvious and only solution is to put ourselves in either the sellers’ or the buyers’ shoes. Would I be willing to pay the price I’m asking? What would be my asking price? Answering these questions objectively will help counteract the effects of ownership and help bridge the gap between buyer and seller.

Expect the buyer to ask for higher prices and expect the seller to negotiate. Part of it’s a game but a part of it is true value assign to the price. The frustration of having to pay more or to receive less is not easily dealt with and it may make or break a deal.

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Image by: ccgd